I was looking at your last post on your blog and I thought I would pass along some comments.

• If the unit in 0119 has a ZOC the German spearhead is out of supply.  Either way, I would move that unit onto hex 0219 to block the rail line.  Can the Turks use any naval supply?  There is a port in 0219.
• I would move the 3rd Infantry Division from hex 0617 to hex 0417.  Occupying that hex cuts the supply to the German spearhead.  Since it is a mountain hex behind a river, it will be a tough nut to crack.  Hex 0417 is a pretty important one.  It has good defensive terrain and divisions there have ZOCs which will make it tough to move though the chokepoint in hex 0418.
• I would think about throwing somebody into hex 0418, just to make it harder to attack 0417.
• I would move the Fifth infantry XX into hex 0517.  This will support hex 0417 by making it harder to redeploy German units to attack it.
• I would move the 20th Infantry XX into 0615 or pull it back across the river into 0717.  The former move puts more German units in enemy ZOCs and might make it more difficult to attack 0417.  The latter puts it in a better defensive position.
• From an operational POV, I would have attacked along the railroad towards 0816.  You’re going to need that RR to supply any deep thrust into anatolia and the terrain is more open, which helps your armor.  It also would have the benefit of making the Turks come to you if they are going to cut your supply line.  I would have grabbed 0417, but left the rest of any attacking force on the west bank of the Sakarya (is that the new name for the Meander?).  Once hex 0417 is occupied, any prospective counterattack on your supply line would be across a river and coming from either rough or clear terrain (and would be vulnerable to counterattacks).
• Do you have any engineers with the spearhead that could build temp airfields?  I always forget to use them, but they can be really handy supporting a rapid advance.

The reinforcements delayed during Turn 3, now appear on the battlefield, providing desperately needed support to the Turk MLR, allowing for some defense in depth.

The  fighting has moved far enough east that many of the best Axis air assets are either out of range, or have to stage up to reach the battlefield, and return to Istanbul’s overcrowded airfields.

This will be a difficult turn for the Axis, as Fall and possible bad weather is approaching.

Axis forces continued to move aggressively towards Ankara via the narrow valley  just north and west of the capital.  In addition, the SS Corps drove south in an attempt to flank the main Turk defenses.

The main effort was against Hex 0414.  The basic odds were 41:8 with a -1 for rough terrain, and a +3 for AECA.  Turkish A-19 and H-111 squadrons flew DS, but were countered by Luftwaffe assets staging up through Istanbul.  The final odds were 5-1, +2.  The die roll was a 2, modified to a 4, for a DH result.  The surviving Turkish units retreated one hex.

The SS attack fared eaven worse.  Despite 6:1 odds with a +1 modifier, a 1 was rolled, for a DR result.  Ugh!

Rather than continue blasting away in the south, the SS corps exploited back northeast to assist in the now tenuous main effort.

Bad die resulted in far fewer reinforcements than needed.  Other units were rushed west to create yet another flawed defense line.  Always one unit, or one more movement hex is/are needed.  Well, this line might hold for a bit.  Really needed those six, 3-6 divisions!

Two attacks for the turn.

The first was against Hex 0315, Duzce.

Initial odds were 19:8, +3 for AECA.  Threw a lot of air at the hex in order to increase the odds to 5:1.  The Turks came up to fight, and attempted to bypass the two escorts.  The P-40 was shot down on a roll of 2 (!).  The Mixed Fighter unit got through, but could not shoot down the targeted Stuka unit.  Turkish flak was ineffective.  The combat die roll of 2, was modified to 5, for a DE result.

Here’s the air matchup.  Note that only six air units were eligible for the mission (one per RE), not the eight shown.

The second attack was against Hex 4625.  The odds were 5:1 (with some help from a single Axis air unit), with a -2 for wooded rough terrain, and -1 for the defending armor cadre’s AECD.  The die roll of 6 was modified to 3, for a DR result and a ZOC kill.

The Axis pushed up through the Turk defenses during the Exploitation Phase.

Been TAD for past two weeks.  Forgot to take notes after Axis move, so will rely on a photo to provide the description.

The problem is too many low odds attacks.  Allocation of air assets will be critical.  Have to work those out.